Serie A
Serie A fair odds. Devigged consensus probabilities for upcoming Italian top-flight fixtures.
Prices are re-checked about every 30 minutes while the market is open. All times shown in Israel time. Prices captured Tue 25 Aug, 15:00.
Biggest move since yesterday: Lecce – AS Roma (2) 1.73 → 1.62
| Kickoff | Match | 1 (Home) | X (Draw) | 2 (Away) | Total (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 28 Aug, 21:45 | AC Milan – Venezia | 1.43(70%) | 5.12(20%) | 9.49(11%) | 2.5: 1.93 / 2.08 |
| Sat 29 Aug, 19:30 | Fiorentina – Frosinone | 1.72(58%) | 4.24(24%) | 5.45(18%) | 2.5: 1.92 / 2.09 |
| Sat 29 Aug, 19:30 | Monza – Udinese | 3.51(28%) | 3.36(30%) | 2.39(42%) | 2.5: 2.36 / 1.73 |
| Sat 29 Aug, 19:30 | Sassuolo – Torino | 2.34(43%) | 3.50(29%) | 3.48(29%) | 2.5: 2.12 / 1.89 |
| Sat 29 Aug, 21:45 | Juventus – Parma | 1.28(78%)↗ 1.27 → 1.28 | 6.78(15%) | 14.52(7%) | 2.5: 1.73 / 2.37 |
| Sun 30 Aug, 19:30 | Napoli – Como | 2.60(39%) | 3.32(30%) | 3.19(31%) | 2.5: 2.44 / 1.70 |
| Sun 30 Aug, 21:45 | Lazio – Genoa | 2.06(48%) | 3.37(30%) | 4.59(22%) | 2.5: 2.45 / 1.69 |
| Sun 30 Aug, 21:45 | Cagliari – Inter Milan | 7.95(13%) | 4.56(22%) | 1.53(65%) | 2.5: 2.02 / 1.98 |
| Mon 31 Aug, 19:30 | Lecce – AS Roma | 7.02(14%)↗ 6.00 → 7.02 | 4.15(24%)↗ 3.90 → 4.15 | 1.62(62%)↘ 1.73 → 1.62 | 2.5: 2.23 / 1.82 |
| Mon 31 Aug, 21:45 | Atalanta BC – Bologna | 1.97(51%) | 3.86(26%) | 4.28(23%) | 2.5: 1.92 / 2.09 |
Small arrows mark fair prices that moved since the previous day’s capture.
What is a fair price?
Every bookmaker price contains a built-in margin. We take the prices quoted by multiple European bookmakers for the same market, remove each book’s margin (“devigging”), and average the result (that consensus is the market’s honest estimate of the probability. A market needs at least 3 complete books to get a fair price; anything thinner shows a gap, never a guess. Totals are shown at the line most books agree on), prices at other lines are not comparable and we won’t approximate them.
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